Coal, fossil fuels and thinking the unthinkable

The world can continue burning coal at current rates for 128 years before proven and recoverable coal reserves run out, according to data in the 2010 Survey of Energy Resources published by the World Energy Council in Montreal this week.

Reserves are well distributed among some 75 countries and the price of coal has historically been lower and more stable than that of other fossil fuels, the survey says. For this reason, coal “is likely to remain the most affordable fuel for power generation in many developed and developing countries for several decades.”

Its use is expected to rise 60 percent by 2030, WEC says, meaning that little will change in the global energy mix over the next 20 years.

“Generally, fossil fuels currently account for about 80 percent of primary energy demand and this figure is expected to remain largely the same through to 2030,” according to WEC.

The world’s continued dependence on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future has been a recurring theme at the WEC’s World Energy Congress, so much so that even a panel of executives and government officials asked to “Think the Unthinkable” focused on their efforts to address the current trends of emerging market growth, urbanization, demand for gas, etc.

This prompted a frustrated member of the audience to remark that the panel’s approach recalled Einstein’s definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Miguel Martinez, chief operating officer of Repsol YPF, said today’s mission must be to gain time and to pursue all options that make non-renewable fuels less carbon intensive while affordable sustainable alternatives are pursued.

The WEC survey shows that much is already being done. World wind energy capacity has been doubling about every three-and-a-half years since 1990, while the global market for photovoltaic solar panels has been growing at an average of 47 percent per year for the past five years. But there is still a long way to go, it says.

“It will take decades before renewables will be able to provide a sizeable contribution to meeting energy demand,” the survey says. “In the meantime, the world should focus on increasing efficiency across across the entire energy value chain.”